The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.UPDATE--Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has more on the daily polling numbers.The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.
UPDATE 2--Washington Post polling director has Obama up but analyzes question(s) about poll reliability:
In the latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll of likely voters, Obama has a nine-point lead, larger than Dewey's five-point margin in the late October Gallup poll in 1948. Other reputable national polls this year show similar or even larger Obama leads. But could we still make big mistakes? Can the polls be trusted?
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