Economy Pushes Hispanics Towards Obama

The Los Angeles Times explains. Key excerpts:

The William C. Velasquez Institute, a nonpartisan public policy center in Los Angeles, analyzed polling data from the three Western states and Florida. It found that Latino voters provided no advantage to either side in Florida despite long-standing support for the Republican Party by Cuban Americans.

In the Western states, the Latino vote is growing in size and as a percentage of the total, and it is favoring the Democratic Party more than in previous years.

Latinos make up 32.4% of registered voters in New Mexico, 11.4% in Nevada and 9.9% in Colorado. The institute examined data from eight polling firms and found that Obama's lead over McCain in Nevada would be 42.4% to 40.7% without Latino voters -- a difference that's within the margin of error. Include Latino voters, however, and Obama's lead grows to 50%, versus 43% for McCain.

That only tells part of the story, according to Antonio Gonzalez, president of the institute. In the last presidential election, 60% of Latinos in Nevada voted for Democratic candidate John F. Kerry and 40% for Bush. This time, polls show a 7- to 10-point increase for Obama.

"Two things are happening: The Latino vote is growing, and there's a bigger margin of support for Obama," Gonzalez said.

And:

Democratic and Republican activists working the precincts say the economy is the main issue for most voters. The war in Iraq is second on the minds of Latinos, many of whom have friends and family in Iraq. A few said they opposed McCain for having moved away from immigration reform as a presidential candidate.

The last sentence highlights a growing problem for the GOP: McCain's move away from comprehensive immigration reform has to do with appealing to the base, which wants a much more punitive approach; but that stance angers a growing part of the electorate, Hispanics; additionally, the business community likes cheap labor, putting it at odds with the party base...making the GOP a circular firing squad, at this point.