Realignment Election, part 2

The House is swinging very much towards the Democrats.

Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato both have updated House race rankings wherein most races that are showing movement are shifting in the Democrats' direction. Cook's projection has Democrats winning a net of between 23-28 seats and Sabato expects Democrats will win an "astounding 22-27 seats" (up from 15-20 in his previous rankings.)

The policy implications of this remain unsettled, for there will be a lot of moderate Democrats in the House, and they may not fully tack as left as their more liberal colleagues. The Times notes there will still be many challenges for Democrats despite large Congressional gains. At least the Democratic leadership appears to be aware of this:

Democrats said they were well aware of the mistakes of the past and the overconfidence exhibited during one-party rule of the Clinton and Bush administrations that led to Democrats’ losing control of the House in 1994 and to Republicans’ experiencing a similar defeat in 2006.

Chastened by their years in exile, Democrats said they were determined to avoid those pitfalls should voters deliver them control of the White House and Congress.

The nature of the Democratic majority, expanded partly through the election of centrists and even conservatives, would also temper Democratic zeal to pursue an overly ideological agenda, Democrats said.

Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) says:

“I think the Senate operates best when it makes things happen in the middle, and that happens when you have 41 or more people who resist an idea to the point where you can compromise,” said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader and a lawmaker whose own seat is at risk.

I'm amused. I wonder if that's his stump speech: Vote for me so I can obstruct Democratic policy initiatives. I mean, no matter how true it is, it isn't very inspiring, is it?

Despite the probability of large Democratic gains in Congress, state government elections remain competitive. We should remember this point, for the impacts of state government decisions are felt by everyone, every day. In light of their falling tax revenues, states face hard choices (read: "many opportunity costs"), making their legislative composition a key factor when evaluating how the national government must act in these days of significant economic uncertainty.

Overall, I think this more 1932 than 1976, but the lessons of 1976-80 better be remembered by every Democrat.